Most of the recessions identified by the Committee’s procedures consist of two or more quarters of declining real GDP, but declining real GDP is not the only indicator used.As an example, the Committee has identified the period from the first quarter in 1980 to the third quarter in 1982 as a recession, despite the fact that real GDP was growing in some quarters during that episode and that real GDP was higher at the end of the recession than at the beginning.Findings Methodology Data sources FAQs The CEPR Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is composed of nine CEPR researchers, establishes the chronology of recessions and expansions of the eleven-original euro-area member countries plus Greece for 1970-1998, and of the entire euro area from 1999 onwards.
Subsequent data revisions have erased these declines.
Note: CEPR Recession shading for quarters follows the trough method used by FRED to compute NBER Recession Inndicators for the United States (see here).
It shows a recession from the quarter following the peak through the quarter of the trough (i.e.
Its main conclusion is that since the last trough in 2013Q1, the euro area has been recovering at a slow but steady pace.
This post-recession recovery is commensurate with that of the US recovery, considering it began later, after the double-dip European recession that followed the global financial crisis. Since then there have been five complete cyclical episodes (recession followed by expansion).